OK, it's more like groundhog decade or something, but I seem to be caught in a hard loop. Many current events are repeats of what has been going on for some time, and I've already said my piece. Fortunately, I forget the specifics after having ranted. Unfortunately, I sometimes stumble on some old post and realize that I have nothing new to say.

I have argued repeatedly that scientists, science writers and the media in general as well as politicians that use doom scenarios as wedge issues are the cause of doubt, that they have ruined their own credibility, and that they must rehabilitate themselves by changing their behavior so that they can serve the useful social purpose of informing society. Shouting louder or seeking clever ways to disguise speculation doesn't overcome public distrust of science, it makes it worse. Gilland is wrong that there is "a reluctance to believe anything but scare stories", few believe them anymore than they believe other political assertions. It's just ammunition to attack political opponents and people continue to live in ways that demonstrate their lack of belief. Looking at what they do rather than what they say in the heat of battle reveals their beliefs.

We need some maturity in the science community, recognition that by presenting speculation as data they have diminished the ability of society to respond, slowed reaction time to legitimate threats.

For related posts see Unanimous Fallacies and Affective Forecasting Accuracy