| Muck and Mystery Loitering With Intent |
blog - at - crumbtrail.org |
I pick on the phoney-baloney Euro-weenie climate angsters - and their US fellow travelers - because they live in bizarro world where reality is inverted, magic still works, and everyone is forever young . . . or at least childish. This isn't just harmless delusion.
Cut to the chase. We rich people can’t stop the world’s 5 billion poor people from burning the couple of trillion tons of cheap carbon that they have within easy reach. We can’t even make any durable dent in global emissions—because emissions from the developing world are growing too fast, because the other 80 percent of humanity desperately needs cheap energy, and because we and they are now part of the same global economy. What we can do, if we’re foolish enough, is let carbon worries send our jobs and industries to their shores, making them grow even faster, and their carbon emissions faster still.To conserve the environment, including the atmosphere, requires that these realities be dealt with. Primarily, cheap and abundant energy is required. When digging, pumping, cutting and hauling mass quantities of material is the expensive way to get energy then it will diminish.We don’t control the global supply of carbon.
Ten countries ruled by nasty people control 80 percent of the planet’s oil reserves—about 1 trillion barrels, currently worth about $40 trillion. If $40 trillion worth of gold were located where most of the oil is, one could only scoff at any suggestion that we might somehow persuade the nasty people to leave the wealth buried. They can lift most of their oil at a cost well under $10 a barrel. They will drill. They will pump. And they will find buyers. Oil is all they’ve got.
Poor countries all around the planet are sitting on a second, even bigger source of carbon—almost a trillion tons of cheap, easily accessible coal. They also control most of the planet’s third great carbon reservoir—the rain forests and soil. They will keep squeezing the carbon out of cheap coal, and cheap forest, and cheap soil, because that’s all they’ve got. Unless they can find something even cheaper. But they won’t—not any time in the foreseeable future.
That won't happen soon, or not soon enough if the climate hysterics are anywhere near correct, which means that some of that cheap and abundant energy will have to be used to clean up the air.
Efforts directed to fussy and empty gestures - buying indulgences, minor and usually false economies of energy - are counterproductive.
the suggestion that we can lift ourselves out of the economic doldrums by spending lavishly on exceptionally expensive new sources of energy is absurd. “Green jobs” means Americans paying other Americans to chase carbon while the rest of the world builds new power plants and factories. And the environmental consequences of outsourcing jobs, industries, and carbon to developing countries are beyond dispute. They use energy far less efficiently than we do, and they remain almost completely oblivious to environmental impacts, just as we were in our own first century of industrialization. A massive transfer of carbon, industry, and jobs from us to them will raise carbon emissions, not lower them.We will not only impoverish ourselves, we will make carbon concerns worse.
Thirty years ago, the case against nuclear power was framed as the “Zero-Infinity Dilemma.” The risks of a meltdown might be vanishingly small, but if it happened, the costs would be infinitely large, so we should forget about uranium. Computer models demonstrated that meltdowns were highly unlikely and that the costs of a meltdown, should one occur, would be manageable—but greens scoffed: huge computer models couldn’t be trusted. So we ended up burning much more coal. The software shoe is on the other foot now; the machines that said nukes wouldn’t melt now say that the ice caps will. Warming skeptics scoff in turn, and can quite plausibly argue that a planet is harder to model than a nuclear reactor. But that’s a detail. From a rhetorical perspective, any claim that the infinite, the apocalypse, or the Almighty supports your side of the argument shuts down all further discussion.Those reasoning in good faith have a dilemma: we can't honestly say that the nukes won't melt or that the climate won't go bonkers . . . or that they will. All arguments that counsel stupid policies that are justified as necessary to avoid apocalypse are nonsense. The reasonable thing to do is to have sensible policies that accomplish useful objectives and allow humanity to progress, to strengthen, and so be in a better position to deal with what comes.
"but greens scoffed: huge computer models couldn’t be trusted."
But theirs can be trusted! I guess that's because they are the good guys.
Posted by: alice at April 25, 2009 08:11 AM