One of the things that irritates me about environmental pundits and activists (or get's up my nose as Charlie might say) is that they greet improved analyses with disappointment.

Two studies out today — one on energy trends, one on climate as a security issue — bode poorly for those seeking to prevent global warming from passing dangerous thresholds. Coal and oil use climb relentlessly, at a rate similar to that for growth in wind, solar, and nuclear power, but in vastly larger quantities. . .

As I wrote the other day, it looks like countries are going to remain focused on addressing real-time problems related to energy security (most notably high oil prices) for the time being, even as evidence builds that global warming could fuel turmoil, particularly in already-troubled places like sub-Saharan Africa, in the long run.

Why would anyone be disappointed that people all over the world deal with first things first?

We assess that climate change alone is unlikely to trigger state failure in any state out to 2030, but the impacts will worsen existing problems—such as poverty, social tensions, environmental degradation, ineffectual leadership, and weak political institutions. Climate change could threaten domestic stability in some states, potentially contributing to intra- or, less likely, interstate conflict, particularly over access to increasingly scarce water resources. We judge that economic migrants will perceive additional reasons to migrate because of harsh climates, both within nations and from disadvantaged to richer countries.

The findings largely reflect those of other recent reports, including the section on climate impacts in last year’s assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. And while it’s certainly not good news, it’s clear that climate impacts remain one of many elements in the mix driving tensions in poor places — ranging from bad governance to high food prices to, yes, high energy costs.

It is good news. We don't always hear that humanity is behaving sensibly. Hopefully climate change fever is passing and we can get on with the serious business of trying to deal with our problems such as "poverty, social tensions, environmental degradation, ineffectual leadership, and weak political institutions". Climate change or not these are priority issues.

It is also heartening that the deceits and exaggerations of activists and politicians, including some scientists, are being debunked. There is no way, no hope, that any sort of regulatory scheme is going to matter one bit. CO2 emissions will rise until there are better energy technologies. That's where we might be able to do some good, and happily, this will also help with the immediate problems of "poverty, social tensions, environmental degradation, ineffectual leadership, and weak political institutions". OK, maybe not with the ineffectual leadership, and weak political institutions, those are pervasive and immutable.

Some things never change.