| Muck and Mystery Loitering With Intent |
blog - at - crumbtrail.org |
As it becomes ever more obvious that greens are part of the problem, not the solution, narratives are being revised in an attempt to salvage some dignity.
Just one problem. Winning the war on global warming requires slaughtering some of environmentalism's sacred cows. We can afford to ignore neither the carbon-free electricity supplied by nuclear energy nor the transformational potential of genetic engineering. We need to take advantage of the energy efficiencies offered by urban density. We must accept that the world's fastest-growing economies won't forgo a higher standard of living in the name of climate science — and that, on the way up, countries like India and China might actually help devise the solutions the planet so desperately needs.Wrong answer. Replacing a raft of nonsense narratives with another equally nonsensical narrative, however grand in scope, is no help. The argument seems to be a replay or spin-off of Stewart Brand's environmental heresies position of a couple of years ago. 10 heresies are listed.
Fashion isn't the only victim of reality, politics is having a hard time as well as scrutiny turns certainty to mush.
If the developing countries did not grow, then safe levels of emissions would be achieved by reducing advanced country emissions by a factor of two or a little more. But with the growth of the developing countries, the incremental emissions are very large because of the size of the populations. To take the extreme case, if the whole world grew to advanced country incomes and converged on the German levels of emissions per capita, then to be safe from a warming standpoint, emissions per capita would need to decline by a factor of four. Reductions of this magnitude with existing technology are either not possible, or so costly as to be certain of slowing global and developing country growth.This is from a report issues by the World Bank and UK government: Strategies For Sustained Growth And Inclusive Development. Emissions reductions won't suffice. We don't know how to handle this threat at this time. That has been obvious for a very long time, but it was taboo to say it since so much political capital had been invested in control regimes and carbon schemes. There has been some recent discussion of this problem too. Once bad policies are implemented it is very difficult to reform them since so many become dependent on them. Biofuel subsidies are a common example - a lot of money has been invested, careers have been built. Carbon trading is another.What these calculations make clear is that technology is the key to accommodating developing country and global growth. We need to lower the costs of mitigation. Put differently, we need to build more economic value on top of a limited energy base. For that we need new knowledge.
So what does this new report that recognizes the need for new plans recommend? Nine steps, though twelve would have been more appropriate.
Climate change isn't a political problem, it's a technological problem, so it is no surprise that policy proposals make no sense. But what can politicians do? They have to do something, they have to at least do some rituals and talk a lot, because their jobs and credibility depend on maintaining an illusion of competence, or at least good intentions.
Expect politics, like green fashion, to continue to unravel. But also expect the tattered condition to be largely ignored. Eyes will be averted to protect virtue and modesty. It's like in the movies: monsters never truly die since that would end the series, kill the franchise.