Muck and Mystery
   Loitering With Intent
blog - at - crumbtrail.org
December 21, 2007
Things We Know

That ain't so.

For the past decade the world has not warmed. Global warming has stopped. It’s not a viewpoint or a sceptic’s inaccuracy. It’s an observational fact. Clearly the world of the past 30 years is warmer than the previous decades and there is abundant evidence (in the northern hemisphere at least) that the world is responding to those elevated temperatures. But the evidence shows that global warming as such has ceased.
That is, "the global temperature of 2007 is statistically the same as 2006 as well as every year since 2001". The word statistically might benefit from some unpacking.
The explanation for the standstill has been attributed to aerosols in the atmosphere produced as a by-product of greenhouse gas emission and volcanic activity. . .

Other explanations have been proposed such as the ocean cooling effect of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.

These explanations aren't compelling since they would have to be synchronized in some way with increasing emissions to exactly compensate for them and so give us the flat temperature record.
So we are led to the conclusion that either the hypothesis of carbon dioxide induced global warming holds but its effects are being modified in what seems to be an improbable though not impossible way, or, and this really is heresy according to some, the working hypothesis does not stand the test of data. . .

Certainly the working hypothesis of CO2 induced global warming is a good one that stands on good physical principles but let us not pretend our understanding extends too far or that the working hypothesis is a sufficient explanation for what is going on.

Few wish to discuss this since it doesn't support the litany and so might make it more difficult to ram draconian behavior changes down the public's throat, not to mention the economic impacts on the AGW industry and the political impacts for those who have staked their careers on warming.
I have heard it said, by scientists, journalists and politicians, that the time for argument is over and that further scientific debate only causes delay in action. But the wish to know exactly what is going on is independent of politics and scientists must never bend their desire for knowledge to any political cause, however noble.

The science is fascinating, the ramifications profound, but we are fools if we think we have a sufficient understanding of such a complicated system as the Earth’s atmosphere’s interaction with sunlight to decide. We know far less than many think we do or would like you to think we do. We must explain why global warming has stopped.

My emphasis. This is an example of what is so profoundly mistaken about activist scientists who seek to steer society rather than inform the public.

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