Muck and Mystery
   Loitering With Intent
blog - at - crumbtrail.org
January 09, 2007
Dark Principles

Robin Hanson comments on a recent political science paper.

Margit Tavits shows that in "23 advanced democracies over a period of 40 years," voters rewarded political parties for changing economic positions, but punished parties for changing other social positions.

"even those parties that make [social] policy adjustments that correspond to the preference shifts of voters lose votes."

On pragmatic issues, voters value "getting things done." Policy shifts in this domain signal responsiveness to the changing environment and are likely to be rewarded. Principled issues, however, concern core beliefs and values. Any policy shift in this domain is a sign of inconsistency and lack of credibility, which is likely to lead to voter withdrawal.
Alas, social science is built on the idea that better info can give better social policy; if voters interpret social policy changes as a lack of principles, rather than better info, it will be very hard for better info to induce better policy. Makes me want to be against principles.
I see no problem here. Politicians who exhibit unprincipled behavior should be rejected. The people will simply choose someone else who claims to hold the desired principles. That they are all faking it is just one of those truths we don't talk about. It makes me want to be against politics. Wait. . . I am against politics.

Besides, it's an illusion, and not a very good one, that "better info can give better social policy". The info is likely to be mistaken - often intentionally - and social policy is only useful for tiny homogeneous societies. In large, diverse societies social policy is more properly called culture war and is intended to oppress unfashionable minorities.

Posted by back40 at 05:21 PM | politics

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Comments

I'm sure that you favor some social policy or another, even it if is the policy of live and let live. You must have based that choice on some data of some sort; don't you think more data might lead to better choices?

Posted by: Robin Hanson at January 9, 2007 06:21 PM

Hi Robin,

It isn't that I favor the null social policy policy due to some idea that it is right so much as that it appears that others do not work. It isn't that they are doing the wrong rain dance, it is that dancing doesn't make rain. It's good for other things though.

More data can lead to better choices in theory, though this isn't always the case. As Tyler notes, self-deception is common. For example, there's lots of data about the failure of social policies, but it is usually ignored, especially by those who make social policy. They need their jobs and have invested everything in their careers. They can't easily think such thoughts, and they have a large support group to help them look away and still feel OK.

It seems to me that better data, if not more data, can enhance the social mind (metaphorical aggregation of individual minds) if it is widely and clearly communicated, and this is the best that can be done. It is one of my expectations for ubiquitous ICT.

I do appreciate your comments, and would be happy to have my errors corrected, though this is too large a task for any one person, and not really worth the effort.

Posted by: back40 at January 9, 2007 10:57 PM
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