One of the weird behaviors of climate change hysterics and PR flacks is to abstract every tiny bit of information that could be remotely construed as support for their obsessions from otherwise unconnected reports. A press release from the USDA Forest Service is headlined "Climate models predict wetter winters, warmer summers in the West".

Scientists have now developed computer models that are producing the first simulations of how ecosystems and fire regimes could change in the 21st century. Some of these simulations are showing that the Western United States may get wetter during the winter and experience warmer summers throughout the 21st century. These results have been used in national and global assessments of global climate change. [emphasis added]

But if you follow the provided link you find a group of foresters concerned about fuel loads in forests and a system to predict where fires are likely based on past and anticipated precipitation and forest condition. They use weather models that provide a capability to look at finer grained forecasts covering smaller geographic areas to overcome defficiencies in most models that make them unable to deal with the variable climates of mountainous terrain.

The story here is that foresters are concerned with fuel loads in forests which make them vulnerable to catastrophic fire. The combination of fire weather observations and forecasts along with fuel load assessmemts enables them to anticipate the timing and severity of fires. Confidence in their fire models is heightened by good success in after the fact prediction of past fires.

In late September, 2003 an article from the University of Washington in the same Pacific Northwest region states the issues clearly.

Without thinning the worst is yet to come for fire-prone forests

When fires turn eastern Washington and Oregon forests into wastelands, valuable wildlife habitat is lost and it costs between $1,300 and $2,100 per acre in fire-fighting costs, lost buildings, economic suffering by nearby communities and degraded waterways, say University of Washington researchers in a recently published report.

The full report provides extensive discussion of methods and conclusions. The report was prepared by The Rural Technology Initiative, a collaboration between the University of Washington, the USDA Forest Service and Washington State University.

The prediction of warmer winters and wetter summers for this region by some models is not news. But even if those predictions are wrong and the predicted reduction in solar activity in this century compared to the last and the recent change of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation to the cooler negative phase for the next 25-30 years combine to cool the region and dry it up the increased concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere will drive increased forest growth. Trees grow better in enriched CO2 environments and lose less water through evapotranspiration for a similar effect to increased precipitation. The issue is increased fuel loads in forests already overpopulated due to fire suppression.

Before Europeans arrived there were typically 30 to 60 large trees per acre in the Okanogan and Fremont national forests. Today the average is 1,000 trees per acre and in some places it’s as high as 3,000 trees. More than three-fourths of these two national forests are considered at high to moderate risk for crown fires, and both are fairly representative of forests in the Intermountain West from Canada to Arizona and New Mexico. Selected forest management activities can return forests to prior healthy conditions while providing economic opportunities for rural communities."